Premier League Tighter Than Ever: Is the End Really That Unpredictable?

Before the 2023/24 Premier League season, people were already calling it predictable. Manchester City have, after all, had a clean sweep of Premier League titles since 2020. Under Pep Guardiola, this team has flown to new heights, knocking out the competition as if they’re no more than foam obstacles on the way to the trophy.

The only time they’ve lost since 2016 was when Liverpool pulled the rug from under their feet in the 2019/20 season, with Klopp leading his side to a famous victory that will live forever in Liverpudlian hearts. Around halfway through this 2023/24 season, however, and everything was up in the air. Unbeknownst to anyone, Arsenal have finally come into their own, and have been playing like the clock has been turned back some twenty years – with echoes of Arsene Wenger in Mikel Arteta and Thierry Henry in leading player, Declan Rice.

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Even football expert Greg Lea – who releases weekly predictions on TalkSport – seemed to have trouble calling who was going to win. For the first time in what felt like forever, the Premier League was open again. But now Manchester City have refound their form. After a strong string of games, they’re nipping at Arsenal’s heels and only ask for one slip-up before they slip past them. So is the end of this season really that unpredictable? Or did we all predict it before the first ball was even kicked?

What Do Man City Need to Do?

Now that Erling Haaland – who has been out with an injury – has returned to the race for this season’s Castrol Golden Boot, Manchester City have a real shot of securing yet another Premier League title. At the time of writing, they have four more games to play, and according to Pep Guardiola, they cannot afford a slip-up. Even a draw will be enough to give Arsenal the winning hand.

Arsenal, on the other hand, need to be picture-perfect. It isn’t like they can write a checklist that leads to success – the road ahead is unpredictable. Unlike Man City, they have three games left this season, all against formidable opponents, and in order to give themselves a good shot of securing the trophy, they need to win all of them. By doing that, they can gain a maximum of 89 points, while Man City require four wins to secure maximum points of 91. If Man City do draw and Arsenal win all three of their games, then the trophy will likely be decided on goal difference, which means Arsenal are still likely to clinch it.

The Fixtures That Lie Ahead

That being said, Arsenal’s games are not the most friendly of fixtures. They begin the last leg with Bournemouth at home, which you’d expect them to win, but then have to go away to Manchester United and finish their campaign with a home game against Everton. On the other side of the coin, Manchester City have Wolves at home, then Fulham away, Tottenham away, and then West Ham at home. Comparing both routes, it has to be said that Manchester City have a greater likelihood of winning all their games, especially considering their recent form.

Arsenal are a superb team right now, to be sure, but Manchester United away is not going to be easy, especially after the embarrassment that Man Utd experienced against Coventry. Some people look at that game and put the odds in Arsenal’s favour. We can’t help but look at that game and suggest it does the opposite. Man Utd are a hurt beast, with little confidence from their supporters – they’ll want nothing more than to spoil the party and restore some pride in their shirt in the process.

Whatever happens, though, we’re happy to say that it won’t be predictable. Even if Man City win, the way in which they’ve done so – and the way in which Arsenal have pushed them so close – will have been wholly unpredictable before this season started. It’s not about winning, after all, it’s about the journey to get there. And who knows, it might not be Arsenal who will grasp the trophy after all…