Manufacturing has overtaken mining, foreign investment topped $114 billion in five years, and the rating agencies are taking note, according to a new analysis.
Kazakhstan is steadily widening its appeal to international capital beyond oil and gas, according to an analysis published by The World Financial Review on 1 October. The publication points to three signs of the shift: $114.2 billion in gross foreign direct investment between 2021 and 2025, an investment-grade sovereign rating recently upgraded by S&P, and a manufacturing sector that now accounts for a larger share of the economy than mining.
For a country whose economic fortunes have long moved in step with global commodity prices, that is a notable change. As The World Financial Review notes, oil and gas brought in foreign capital, boosted export revenues and funded large-scale infrastructure after independence, but the success of the resource-based model also made diversification harder for decades.
From continuity to a new economic course
The review traces the turn to the political transition that began in 2019, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took office. Under his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who led the country for almost 30 years, Kazakhstan carried out market reforms and attracted significant foreign investment, yet the extractive sector remained decisive for exports and public finances.
The new agenda, the article says, centres on developing competition, protecting private property, reducing the state’s role in the economy and attracting capital into non-resource industries. Diversification has become one of the central pillars of state policy.
The publication argues that the results are already visible in the numbers. In 2025, GDP per capita exceeded $15,000, up 52.9% over seven years. Gross FDI inflows reached $155.8 billion over 2019–2025.
Growth forecasts and an investment-grade rating
The World Financial Review highlights a broadly consistent picture from international institutions. In September 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development kept its growth forecast for Kazakhstan at 4.7% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027, while flagging risks linked to oil export disruptions, external demand and commodity markets. The Asian Development Bank expects growth of 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
Credit rating agencies point in the same direction. In August 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan’s long-term sovereign rating from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook, citing the economy’s resilience, substantial external reserves and an expected narrowing of the non-oil budget deficit. S&P forecasts real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026 and around 4% over the medium term. Fitch Ratings affirmed the country at BBB with a stable outlook, pointing to substantial net foreign assets and relatively low government debt.
For foreign companies assessing country risk and planning long-term projects, the review observes, this combination of growth, an investment-grade rating and sizeable reserves carries real weight.
Factories, cars and farms
Manufacturing is singled out as the most visible area of change. Over the past seven years, 625 new industrial enterprises have been launched, creating almost 62,000 jobs, according to the article. That opens the door for international companies interested in localising production, supplying equipment and joining regional value chains.
The automotive industry is presented as a telling example. Kazakhstan has produced almost 800,000 vehicles over seven years, supported by major projects from Kia Qazaqstan and Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan. The publication suggests the next step is attracting component makers, equipment suppliers and technology firms as localisation deepens.
Agriculture is another area of opportunity. Gross output of agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 24% in real terms over seven years, and from 5.2 trillion to 9.8 trillion tenge in monetary terms. That, the review says, creates room for investment in processing, storage, logistics and farm machinery, with international businesses increasingly looking at export-oriented production rather than the domestic market alone.
The domestic market itself is growing too. Employment in small and medium-sized businesses rose 31.3% over seven years to 4.5 million people in 2025, and 118.3 million square metres of housing were commissioned over the same period, generating demand for building materials, engineering equipment and related services.
A Eurasian logistics hub
Kazakhstan’s position between Eurasia’s largest markets is gaining weight as infrastructure catches up. The World Financial Review reports that 36,300 km of roads have been built or repaired over seven years, around 5,000 km of railway track built or upgraded, and work completed at 110 railway stations.
Trade has followed. Foreign trade turnover in goods and services exceeded $170 billion in 2025, up 40.5% over five years. In 2026, Kazakhstan and the EBRD signed a new five-year agreement running to 2030, covering private sector development, sustainable infrastructure, digitalisation, financial markets and the country’s role as a regional trade and logistics hub. The article sees opportunities in logistics, warehousing, transport services and export-oriented manufacturing.
Digital government and human capital
The publication also points to Kazakhstan’s digital track record. Some 90.3% of public services are now provided electronically, the number of e-government service types has doubled from 657 in 2021 to 1,333 in 2026, and 97.5% of the population has internet access. The World Intellectual Property Organization ranked Kazakhstan 10th in the world for government online services in the Global Innovation Index 2025.
For a vast, sparsely populated country, the review notes, moving services online has economic as well as technological significance, cutting the cost for businesses and citizens of dealing with the state.
Investment in people is rising as well. Domestic R&D spending grew from 42.3 billion tenge in 2019 to 252.5 billion tenge in 2025, and 32 branch campuses and strategic partnerships with foreign universities have opened in the country, laying groundwork for more knowledge-intensive industries.
Still a long-term task
The World Financial Review does not present the transition as complete. Oil and gas still play a significant role in exports and public finances, and further progress will depend on sound macroeconomic policy, productivity growth and wider private capital participation.
There are encouraging signs on the balance sheet: external debt fell from 83.1% to 59.4% of GDP over five years. The World Bank’s new Country Partnership Framework for 2026–2031 likewise prioritises infrastructure, economic resilience, a more productive private sector and reducing growth’s dependence on extractive industries.
How far Kazakhstan can turn its accumulated resource and investment potential into new industries, the publication concludes, will define the next stage of its development, and of its pitch to international investors.
Sources
1. The World Financial Review — Kazakhstan Broadens Its Investment Horizons Beyond the Commodities Sector: https://worldfinancialreview.com/kazakhstan-broadens-its-investment-horizons-beyond-the-commodities-sector/
2. EBRD — Central Asia and Mongolia growth to remain robust: https://www.ebrd.com/home/news-and-events/news/2026/central-asia-and-mongolia-growth-to-remain-robust.html
3. S&P Global Ratings — Kazakhstan sovereign rating upgrade to BBB
4. Fitch Ratings — Fitch Affirms Kazakhstan at ‘BBB’; Outlook Stable
5. World Bank — Kazakhstan Country Partnership Framework 2026–2031
