Tyson Fury returns to the ring on April 11 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and while the Fury Makhmudov odds make the outcome appear straightforward, there are legitimate reasons to ask whether The Lion can pull off a genuine upset. Makhmudov certainly believes he can.
“I was really happy when I heard this news because for me it’s a dream fight. All my life I go for my goal, parents told me, my uncle told me when I was nine years old you’re going to be champion of the world,” he said. “I just follow my goals and enjoy this time now and enjoy my trip to reach my goal and I’m looking forward to April 11 to reach my goal.”
Fury comes in with questions hanging over him, and Makhmudov arrives with one of the most fearsome right hands in world heavyweight boxing. So, can he actually win?
The case for Makhmudov
The obvious starting point is the power. Makhmudov has stopped 19 of his 21 opponents, with 13 of those knockouts coming in the first round. He is 6ft 6in tall, weighs around 260 pounds, and carries genuine fight-ending force in his fists. Nobody in boxing walks through that kind of punching power unscathed, not even Tyson Fury.
The more compelling argument, however, is the questions surrounding Fury himself. At 37, Fury has not won a fight since October 2023, losing twice to Oleksandr Usyk before announcing his retirement. Observers have noted that his reactions appeared to slow in those later bouts, his legs looked less dependable, and he spent more time absorbing pressure than controlling range.
Crucially, he has boxed just 254 rounds in his entire professional career, while Makhmudov’s fights have averaged around three rounds each, meaning a fast, explosive start is very much his game. If Fury is rusty and slow out of the blocks, Makhmudov is precisely the type of fighter to punish it.
What the Kabayel loss tells us
For those weighing up the boxing odds on this fight, Makhmudov’s defeat to Agit Kabayel in December 2023 is a necessary reference point. Kabayel, now WBC interim heavyweight champion, dissected Makhmudov by staying disciplined, using footwork to avoid his lunges, and attacking the body relentlessly. Makhmudov was floored three times before the stoppage in round four. The blueprint was clear: take away his early power by making him miss, tire him out, and attack the body.
Fury is arguably better placed than anyone in the heavyweight division to execute exactly that blueprint. His movement is exceptional, his timing is elite, and his ability to frustrate aggressive opponents is well-documented across a career that includes victories over Wladimir Klitschko, Deontay Wilder, and Dillian Whyte.
The verdict
Makhmudov’s path to victory is narrow, but it exists. If Fury’s reflexes have truly diminished and his conditioning falls short, a big early right hand could change everything. At heavyweight, that possibility can never be dismissed entirely.
Realistically, though, Fury possesses every tool to neutralise what Makhmudov brings. He is the more experienced, more technically gifted, and more tactically complete fighter. If he arrives in proper shape, expect him to use movement and distance to drain Makhmudov’s energy before looking for his own finish in the middle rounds.
An upset is possible. It is just not particularly likely.
