In the days following the Swiss summit — where China and the U.S. agreed to cut mutual tariffs for 90 days and to continue trade talks — gold futures plunged by 3.1%.
The decline pushed gold to its lowest closing price since April 10.
Mining stocks follow gold’s decline
Shares of Newmont, a Colorado‐based mining company, fell 4.8% to $51.38, halting an impressive rally that had seen the stock gain 45% in 2025 as of the previous Friday’s close.
Other mining stocks also tumbled: Barrick Gold shares fell 5.2%, while Agnico Eagle Mines dropped 8.2%.
With the trade war easing — and amid recession fears and expectations of lower inflation — investors returned to riskier assets that had been heavily sold off in April. For example, U.S. equities rebounded, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.4% and the S&P 500 futures up 2.6%.
As the chart below shows, there was an inverse correlation between the stock market and gold: when one rose, the other fell.
The correlation coefficient, which ranges from –1 to +1, quantifies this relationship. A value near +1 indicates a strong positive correlation (assets move together), whereas a value near –1 signals a strong negative correlation (assets move in opposite directions). A value around 0 implies little to no relationship.
Bitcoin diverges from “digital gold” narrative
Often dubbed “digital gold,” Bitcoin prices have charted a different course. After collapsing from its post-April highs, it rallied past $105,000, retesting its all-time highs. It has been the best-performing asset during the recent market downturns and continued to rally during the equity market recovery as investors returned to a preference for risk assets.
The image shows that at the time when the euphoria in the stock markets was allowing them to recover from the losses of the April crash, Bitcoin had a direct correlation. Correlation is a vital tool for investors — guiding risk management and enhancing return potential. By diversifying into assets with low or negative correlations, investors can reduce portfolio volatility.
Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish
Returning to gold, technical analysis indicators remain bullish. Prices have rebounded to all-time highs , bolstered by U.S. economic data suggesting that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates over the course of the year.
The latest figures showed that U.S. producer prices suffered their steepest drop in five years, and bond yields have started to decline again.
If gold buying continues — both from China’s central bank and by retail investors — a move toward new highs is possible. Conversely, if demand weakens, a decline could settle around the $2,950-per-ounce support level.
Investment implications
Despite the almost miraculous rebound of U.S. stock markets, recovering April’s losses, tariffs remain very high and their impact on consumer goods prices is already starting to be felt.
Data shows that at the moment to protect against any downturn in the stock markets the choice of investing in gold or Bitcoin may be good alternatives.
As of today, the financial markets remain suspended pending economic data that may or may not confirm the arrival of a recession. The charts above highlight this, whether we are talking about gold or Bitcoin, the correlation to the stock markets is currently toward zero, underscoring a random trend typical of times of uncertainty.
Data from a few weeks ago, however, may be useful for guidance in the near future, whether a positive outlook is realized with a recession receding and thus an upward stock market, or whether negative economic data may sour the health of stock markets and push gold (and perhaps Bitcoin) back to new highs.
David Prior
David Prior is the editor of Today News, responsible for the overall editorial strategy. He is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with over 20 years’ experience, and is also editor of the award-winning hyperlocal news title Altrincham Today. His LinkedIn profile is here.
