It would be fair to say that, for many, 1998 feels like a lifetime ago given all that has gone on in the world since.
But in the English Premier League, that year marked the last time that the three teams promoted from the Championship were all relegated back to the second tier at the first time of asking.
Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were the unlucky outfits – and it’s telling that the former duo now play their football in the third tier of the English game. It really is a long way down from the top of the mountain.
In 2024, Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley will be hoping not to buck a trend that is now a quarter of a century old.
Three is the Magic Number
When you consult the EPL relegation odds, the omens are not good for the trio mentioned. Sheffield United and Luton find themselves priced at 1/14 and 1/10 respectively – an implied probability of greater than 90% in both cases, while Burnley (4/11) also face an uphill battle to pull themselves away from the dropzone.
Vincent Kompany has sympathy for the departing Paul Heckingbottom#BBCFootball pic.twitter.com/7q6It2b2eu
— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) December 4, 2023
In truth, after 16 rounds of matches, it’s hard to make a case for any of them to survive relegation. With no disrespect intended, their respective squads don’t have the quality of those immediately above them in the EPL league table, such as Nottingham Forest and Everton, while it remains very difficult to attract quality players to a relegation-haunted club in the January transfer window.
The manner in which promoted teams go about their business now is to effectively plan for relegation, signing players that will be of a high-quality at Championship level. They pocket the parachute payments – worth around £100 million to each team – and go again next year, with the cycle tending to repeat itself with the same handful of clubs.
The gulf in class between the Premier League and Championship is just too great for the promoted sides to make a sustained effort to stay up – without the deep pockets of a wealthy owner, that is. But even so, the trio of clubs in the mire in 2023/24 are treading new ground of mediocrity…
Unwanted Record
The good news, if you want to call it that, is that none of Sheffield United, Luton and Burnley are unlikely to challenge Derby County for the crown of worst Premier League season in history.
11 – Derby County won just 11 points in the 2007-08 Premier League season; the lowest by any team in the history of the competition. Rammed.
Derby suffered the earliest relegation in PL history on this day in 2008, but were they the worst Premier League team ever?
Read more ⬇️
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) March 29, 2021
The Rams won just 11 points in 2007/08; a campaign of abject misery for all involved. At their current points-per-game ratios, our intrepid trio will at least claim more than that in 2023/24.
However, the fifth-worst season in the annals of the Premier League is Sunderland’s 19-point term of 2002/03 – a points-per-game ratio of 0.5. As things stand, Sheffield United (0.5), Burnley (0.5) and Luton (0.56) are all in danger of gatecrashing the top-five; if two or more of them were to do so, it would cap 2023/24 as one of the most tawdry campaigns for the promoted clubs in modern memory.
Still, best to think positive, all the same…
