Is the Champion Chase already a foregone conclusion?

The Cheltenham Festival is starting to appear on the horizon, and the spotlight is firmly on the five championship races—the Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase, Stayers’ Hurdle, and Gold Cup.

These contests are the primary targets for the top horses in their respective divisions each season and are where legends of the sport are often born. However, this year’s ante-post markets are suggesting that the feature races might not be as competitive as we’d hoped.

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The Ryanair Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle both have short-price favourites in Fact To File (11/8) and Teahupoo (11/10), while the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, and Gold Cup markets are all fronted by odds-on shots—Constitution Hill (8/13), Jonbon (10/11), and Galopin Des Champs (8/15).

It’s the Champion Chase we’re going to focus on here. Jonbon has a formidable record, boasting 17 wins in 20 starts under rules, but has never been successful at the Cheltenham Festival—finishing second to Constitution Hill in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and behind El Fabiolo in the Arkle.

After missing last year’s renewal through illness, the Champion Chase odds are firmly in the Nicky Henderson-trained horse’s favour at 10/11. But is the day two feature race already a foregone conclusion, or could one of Jonbon’s rivals cause an upset?

Well, the form is certainly pointing in the nine-year-old’s direction. He’s unbeaten in three starts this season, winning the Grade 2 Cheltenham Chase at the November Meeting for the second year in a row before following up when defending his Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase crown at Sandown.

The top-level Clarence House Chase at Ascot last month was deemed by many racing fans and pundits alike to be his first proper test of the campaign, but he passed with colours once again when romping home.

The Willie Mullins-trained Energumene, who won the Champion Chase in 2023, added a bit of class to the line-up. But he didn’t pose as much of a threat as anticipated, finishing over six lengths behind Jonbon, who never looked in doubt in the closing stages.

Jonbon has done everything asked of him to almost perfection this season and he couldn’t be going to Cheltenham in better form. And, while he’s done all he can, he’s main rivals for the Champion Chase are arguably flattered to deceive.

Henderson and owner JP McManus would have been watching the recent Dublin Chase at Leopardstown with a keen eye as Jonbon’s competition had a chance to throw down a challenge in the Irish capital and prove that the Champion Chase isn’t already decided.

However, last year’s Arkle winner, Gaelic Warrior, jumped right on occasions and could justify favouritism when finishing a very distant third, while El Fabiolo fell at the second fence in yet another disappointing display.

There are questions over whether Dublin Chase champion Solness could throw a spanner in the mix. The Joseph O’Brien-trained seven-year-old made it two Grade 1 wins in a row at Leopardstown at the beginning of the month and could be somewhat overlooked in the horse race betting at 12/1.

Then there is French raider Il Est Francais. Aimed at the prestigious King George for a long time, the seven-year-old made a front-running effort at Kempton on Boxing Day but ultimately didn’t have enough in the tank to hold off Banbridge.

A trip drop to just over two and a half miles for the Ryanair Chase would make more sense at Cheltenham, but connections don’t want to take on Fact To File. Thus, ll Est Francais could come all the way down to two miles for the Champion Chase. But that’s perhaps too short.

All things considered, Jonbon certainly looks favourable going into the Queen Mother Champion Chase. But this is jumps racing, and we’re talking about the iconic Cheltenham Festival. By now, we should be well aware that anything can happen.