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In 2016, the UK voted to leave the EU. Over the next 4 years, various procedures were carried out, after which the UK officially ceased to be part of the large European family. This event marked the beginning of global changes in the country. They became especially noticeable in the economy, which, although it received some benefits, still suffered more from the break with the EU. Today, 5 years later, the negative consequences are felt more strongly, so opinions are increasingly heard about the need to rejoin Europe. You will learn what the British economy can gain from this and what threats a return to the EU poses. You will learn what the British economy can gain from this and what threats a return to the EU poses.
What has the British economy lost after the UK left the EU?
Just as a car cannot drive without wheels, and night vision devices cannot operate effectively without a light source, the UK economy cannot cope with various challenges independently. After leaving the EU, many problems arose in this area, which led to various negative consequences. Firstly, the British economy faced a sharp drop in trade volumes with Europe. According to the London School of Economics, this figure fell by 16% after Brexit, which negatively affected many Britons who have a business.
Secondly, the economy lost hundreds of millions of pounds of investment. After disconnecting from Europe, investors preferred to invest in EU countries, which have a more stable economic situation and relieve them of unnecessary bureaucratic procedures. In addition, supply chain disruptions began to arise, which did not exist during Britain’s membership in the EU. They negatively affected many industries and, consequently, worsened the economy of the entire country. The COVID-19 pandemic also added to the negativity. The British economy was hit harder by it than the European one, leading to dozens of new problems.
Possible options for rejoining
Rejoining Europe does not necessarily mean a full-fledged return of the UK to the EU, although it would provide the most significant economic benefits. Apart from it, there are several more likely options, each of which could become a reality. Joining the European Single Market (ESM) is one of them. Such a decision could provide many benefits, but in return would require adaptation to EU rules. Norway should be a shining example for the UK. It adapted to existing requirements better than other countries and received significant economic benefits from joining the ESM.
Another available option is the European Union Customs Union (EUCU). The UK’s potential entry into this union could simplify trade relations with many countries and provide more opportunities for concluding economically beneficial cooperation. The option of economic rapprochement with individual countries should also be considered. This could rejoin the UK with Europe and open up new opportunities for economic development.
How will potential rejoining affect the British economy?
The UK is one of the world’s leaders in terms of economic development. Therefore, the potential rejoining of the country with the EU will be a massive advantage for Europe. At the same time, for the UK itself, such a development can simultaneously bring enormous benefits and risks of many problems. All this will be discussed below.
Pros of rejoining
Potential rejoining with Europe could bring many benefits to the British economy. The main one would be the inevitable growth of GDP. According to estimates by various think tanks, during the first decade after returning to the EU, the UK will receive an additional 4%-6%. This is quite a lot to think about rejoining Europe.
The next significant benefit would be the elimination of trade barriers that currently exist with many countries on the continent. If the UK joins the EU, it can eliminate the need to go through many customs procedures at the borders and significantly simplify logistics. This will allow better integration of the British economy into the pan-European one and gain certain benefits from it.
Another advantage is increased investment. If the UK rejoins Europe, it will be able to create more attractive conditions for investors and allow them to implement their projects freely. Finally, all the listed advantages will stabilize the British economy. This will positively affect the pound sterling exchange rate and help the UK forget about inflation for a long time.
Possible risks
The possible process of rejoining Europe will bring advantages to the country’s economy and create certain risks. They will be associated with various aspects that can negatively affect the life of every Briton. The main challenge will be political contradictions. They can divide all residents of the country into two camps. One will support rejoining Europe, and the other will want to continue the chosen path. Contradictions will undoubtedly affect the country’s economy and make it less stable.
Another disadvantage will be the need to adapt to the economic demands of the EU. In most respects, this will not be too difficult, but there will undoubtedly be some demands that will force the British economy to change its usual direction of development. The British also need to remember about rehearsal losses. In the case of rejoining Europe, Great Britain will no longer be able to dictate its terms, as it did before. It will be forced to listen to the opinions and demands of other countries, even if this harms their economy.
Probability of rejoining the UK to Europe
So far, a full-fledged rejoining of Great Britain with Europe is only one of the possible options for the future. However, no expert would dare claim this will happen in 3, 5 or 10 years. The probability of the country’s return to the EU is generally assessed as minimal. At the same time, several factors can accelerate the rejoining of Great Britain with Europe. One of them is the political sentiments of young people. Most Britons under the age of 25 support the pro-European direction of the country’s development, which increases the chances of a possible return of the UK to the EU. Representatives of big businesses also express their opinions. After a partial separation from Europe, they suffered economic losses, which means that their desire to return to the situation that was in the recent past will soon become much greater than it is now. Also, some other circumstances may push British politicians to rapprochement with Europe and re-join the EU.
Rejoining Europe is one of Great Britain’s future options. Renewing closer ties with dozens of countries will give the country’s economy new development opportunities and potentially help improve every Briton’s life. At the same time, rejoining will be a complex process requiring compromises on many vital issues. It is unknown whether politicians and residents of all regions of the UK will agree to this, but the prosperous economic future of Great Britain will depend on their decision.
David Prior
David Prior is the editor of Today News, responsible for the overall editorial strategy. He is an NCTJ-qualified journalist with over 20 years’ experience, and is also editor of the award-winning hyperlocal news title Altrincham Today. His LinkedIn profile is here.
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