Will the Northern Hemisphere Dominate the RWC Knockout Stages?

The quarterfinal draw for the 2023 Rugby World Cup has now been confirmed, with four teams each having qualified from the Northern and Southern hemispheres respectively.

What’s more, each QF fixture will feature an intense battle between the north and south. Wales will take on Argentina in Marseille on Saturday 14^th October, for example, before tournament favourites Ireland do battle with New Zealand in Saint-Denis a few hours later.

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The following day, England will also head to Marseille to play Fiji, before hosts France and South Africa complete the last eight at the Stade de France.

Interestingly, the Northern Hemisphere sides are largely favoured to win their respective matches, creating the potential for an historic northern shutout. But could this actually happen, and if so, which team is likely to prevail?

How Likely is a Northern Hemisphere Shutout?

From an historical perspective, the notion of a Northern Hemisphere shutout would appear unlikely. After all, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia have shared eight wins in the previous nine RWC iterations, with England the only Northern Hemisphere side to lift the Webb Ellis trophy in 2003.

Even then, Australia were the defeated finalists after a dramatic finale at the Stadium Australia in Sydney, while New Zealand also finished third in the tournament.

However, if we look at more recent form and performances, we can see that teams from the south are no longer dominant in the sport. Australia remain in a state of significant transition and have already been eliminated from the pool stages of the tournament, for example, while Ireland were able to edge defending champions South Africa in an epic battle in their Pool B match.

As for the historically dominant All Blacks, they’re only ranked as the fourth best team in the world and finished behind France in Pool A, having been defeated by Les Bleus at the Stade de France in the tournament opener.

Which Southern Hemisphere Sides are Most Likely to Reach the Last Four?

Interestingly, South Africa and New Zealand remain the most likely teams to prevent a Northern Hemisphere shutout in the quarterfinals. Certainly, the Springboks’ game against France is the most difficult to call of all the quarterfinals ties, especially with the former renowned for their defensive strength and ability to save their best form for the biggest matches.

Then there’s New Zealand, who according to Rugby Pass have still won two of their last five encounters with Ireland having prevailed in the first 28 Tests played between the two sides. The All Blacks also thumped Ireland 46-14 at the same stage of the 2019 tournament, ending the latter’s ongoing quest to reach the RWC last four.

However, Ireland have triumphed in five of the last eight head-to-head clashes since their historic first win at the Soldier Field, Chicago in November 2016. They also won an historic three-match series in New Zealand last summer, as they ascended to number one of the world and cemented their status as RWC 23 favourites.

The statistics also show that the team that scores the first try prevails in 80% of the matches between Ireland and New Zealand, so the All Blacks will surely look to start quickly in Saint-Denis and look to compound any nerves or uncertainty that may exist in the Irish side.

The Last Word

Between them, New Zealand and South Africa have won six of the nine completed RWC iterations since 1987, while their heritage and pedigree in the competition make it hard to imagine the last four without at least one of them participating.

South Africa will certainly fancy their chances of upsetting the host nation at the Stade de France, having won 27 of the previous 45 Tests played between the two nations. More importantly, France have only ever won six of their 21 home encounters with the Springboks, although this did include a thrilling 30-26 win at Stade Vélodrome in Marseille last November.

Overall, we’d expect at least one Southern Hemisphere sides to reach the RWC 23 last four, with South Africa the most likely to achieve this objective (especially if Les Bleus talisman Antoine Dupont isn’t fit to return to the French starting 11 in the quarters).

However, the chances of a Northern Hemisphere team winning the Rugby World Cup remain strong, with Ireland remaining the clear favourites to achieve this coveted objective!